Trading decision intelligence

Know the direction before you take the trade.

BiasForge reads the economic calendar, scored newsflow, CFTC positioning, cross-asset flows and yields against live price, and turns them into one thesis per pair — with the level that cancels the bias.

Macro bias for prop firm and funded forex traders. Seven major pairs and gold.

Macro compass

How a bias reads in the dashboard

Demo data
  • XAU/USD

    Active
    Bullish
    Conviction84

    Softer real yields and a weaker dollar are supporting gold, and positioning has room to extend before it looks stretched.

    • MacroSupports
    • FlowSupports
    • SentimentSupports
    Invalidation
    4128.50

    Cancelled below this level.

  • EUR/USD

    No call
    No call

    Components disagree — macro points one way, flow and sentiment the other. No clean read.

    • MacroLeans bullish
    • FlowLeans bearish
    • SentimentLeans bearish

Coverage: seven major pairs and gold.

  • EUR/USD
  • GBP/USD
  • USD/JPY
  • USD/CAD
  • AUD/USD
  • NZD/USD
  • USD/CHF
  • XAU/USD

Conviction is scored 40–92 and measures how much of the evidence agrees. It is not a probability of profit.

Live · economic calendar

Upcoming high-impact events from the economic calendar.

The framework

Direction. Evidence. Invalidation.

Every bias BiasForge publishes answers three questions, in this order.

USD/JPY

Demo data

Direction

BearishActive

Evidence

Conviction67

The rate differential that has carried the dollar against the yen is narrowing as the Bank of Japan normalises policy, and sentiment leans the same way even though flow has yet to follow.

  • MacroSupports
  • FlowAgainst
  • SentimentSupports

Invalidation

Invalidation
157.600

A move above 157.600 closes this bias. It is not moved or defended.

Demo data. Conviction measures agreement among the evidence, not a probability of profit.

  1. Direction

    Which way the macro evidence leans on this pair: bullish, bearish, or no call.

  2. Evidence

    Why. A written thesis, a conviction score, and which components agree — macro, order flow, sentiment.

  3. Invalidation

    The price that cancels the bias. Cross it and the bias closes. It is not moved or defended.

Invalidation

Every thesis needs a point of failure.

A direction without a failure point can’t be tested. Each bias is published with the level that cancels the bias, set from the pair’s recent volatility when the bias opens.

ActiveDemo data
BearishAUD/USD

Thesis

A patient Reserve Bank of Australia, softer Chinese demand for Australian exports and fragile risk appetite leave the Australian dollar exposed against the US dollar.

Invalidation
0.71470

Price crossing this level cancels the bias.

0.71470

A move above 0.71470 closes the bias.

InvalidatedDemo data
BearishAUD/USD

Bias closed at 0.71470.

Recorded, not deleted.

When price crosses the level, the bias closes and the closure goes on the public record with its reason. Nothing is quietly moved.

How it works

Five inputs. One thesis per pair.

Live price, the economic calendar, scored newsflow, CFTC positioning, and cross-asset flows including yields are read together for seven major pairs and gold.

BiasForgeENGINELive priceMarket dataEconomicCalendarNewsflowScored for impactCOTPositioningCross-assetFlows & yieldsDirectionalBias ↗with invalidation level

← swipe to see full diagram →

Five inputs, read together for every covered pair.

  1. Score

    Each currency is scored on macro, order flow and sentiment. A pair's bias is the difference between the two sides of the pair.

  2. Qualify

    A bias opens only when that difference clears the engine's threshold. Below it, or when most of the day's range is already spent, the pair stays flat.

  3. Publish

    The invalidation level is set from recent volatility, and an AI model writes the thesis in plain English. The engine updates through the trading session, and re-reads sooner when a major headline lands.

Currency Strength is in the dashboard as a viewer. It is not an engine input: it lags price, so it would only repeat what the chart already shows.

No call

When the evidence is mixed, BiasForge says so.

It won’t force a direction to fill a screen. A pair stays flat when its components disagree, when the edge is below the threshold, or when the day’s range is already spent. Here is what that looks like when the engine declines to call a high-impact print.

Event brief

ISM Manufacturing PMI

Demo data
USDHigh impactForecast 55.2Previous 55.6

Evidence balance

USD

  • MacroBullish
  • Flow Bearish
  • Sentiment Bearish
BearishNo-call zoneBullish

Overall bias

No directional call

mixed — insufficient directional edge into the print

The forecast of 55.2 against a prior 55.6 implies a modest pullback that stays in expansionary territory. Leading indicators are split, so there is no clean directional lean.

Leading indicators

mixed
Beat · manufacturing leadMiss · services lead

The data points both ways — some leads argue for a beat, others for a miss. This is a real split in the evidence, not missing data, so no directional call is made.

Workflow

From information overload to a structured thesis.

Without BiasForge

  1. Economic calendar
  2. News
  3. Rates and yields
  4. COT positioning
  5. Cross-asset flows
  6. Form a thesis
  7. Pick an invalidation
  8. Open the chart

With BiasForge

  1. Open BiasForge
  2. Read the direction
  3. Review the evidence
  4. Check the invalidation
  5. Check your account risk
  6. Execute your own plan

The research still happens. It’s organised before you open the chart. Entries, sizing and execution stay yours.

Prop Firm Mode

Bias is only useful if your account can survive the trade.

One overlooked risk rule can end a funded account. Prop Firm Mode tracks daily and total drawdown against your firm’s limits, shows what’s left, and checks a planned trade against your remaining room before you take it.

Prop Firm Mode

Daily and total drawdown against your firm’s limits

Demo data · worked example

Daily drawdown

35.6%of limit
Loss used
$890.00
Remaining
$1,610.00
Max daily loss
$2,500.00

Resets at the daily cut-off

Total drawdown

32.8%of limit
Loss used
$1,640.00
Remaining
$3,360.00
Max total loss
$5,000.00

Runs for the life of the account

Pre-trade check

Planned risk $300

Within limits$1,310 daily / $3,060 total left after this trade

Worked on a $50,000 funded account with a 5% daily and 10% total loss limit. Your own account size and drawdown limits go in the settings, or pick your prop firm’s preset.

Preset rule sets for the major prop firms, or enter your own.

The record

Every closed daily read stays on the record. The invalidated ones too.

Each entry is a real daily Today’s Bias read the engine closed: pair, direction, invalidation level, close date, and why it closed. Nothing is removed. A pair’s latest closure appears here once its current read ends.

Closed reads · engine recordInvalidated price crossed the levelClosed withdrawn below the conviction floorRegime flip the macro regime changed
  • BearishXAU/USDRegime flip
    Invalidation
    4156.77

    Opened 10 Nov · Closed 12 Nov

    Why it closed: Closed because the macro regime changed underneath it.

  • BullishUSD/JPYRegime flip
    Invalidation
    157.512

    Opened 9 Nov · Closed 12 Nov

    Why it closed: Closed because the macro regime changed underneath it.

  • BullishXAU/USDRegime flip
    Invalidation
    4032.23

    Opened 8 Nov · Closed 10 Nov

    Why it closed: Closed because the macro regime changed underneath it.

  • BearishUSD/JPYRegime flip
    Invalidation
    158.881

    Opened 3 Nov · Closed 9 Nov

    Why it closed: Closed because the macro regime changed underneath it.

  • BearishNZD/USDInvalidated
    Invalidation
    0.56059

    Opened 9 Nov · Closed 9 Nov

    Why it closed: Invalidation level was hit.

  • BearishGBP/USDInvalidated
    Invalidation
    1.35141

    Opened 4 Nov · Closed 9 Nov

    Why it closed: Invalidation level was hit.

See the full record →

Validation dataset still being built.

Recording began on 27 Aug 2026. Every closed daily read is listed in full on the record page, as it happens.

Inside the dashboard

Organised around the decision, not the data.

Six areas, in the order you use them.

  • Today

    Overview
    The headline bias, the calendar ahead and the news that moved.
  • Bias

    AI Bias
    Direction, conviction and invalidation for every covered pair.
    Bias History
    Every closed daily read and why it closed.
    Currency Strength
    A relative-strength viewer. Not an engine input.
  • Events

    Economic Calendar
    High-impact releases and what they mean for direction.
    Live News
    Headlines scored for macro impact.
    Event Playbooks
    FOMC, NFP, CPI, ECB and BOE days, and what to watch on each.
    Earnings
    The reports large enough to move risk sentiment.
  • Markets

    COT Report
    Weekly CFTC positioning.
    MarketMovers Radar
    Policy and political events tracked for currency impact.
  • Account

    Prop Firm Mode
    Drawdown against your firm’s limits, and a check before a trade.
  • Journal

    Trade Journal
    Your trades, P&L and analytics.

Pricing

Start free. Upgrade for the bias.

Free

$0forever

No card needed

Included

  • Economic calendar with forecasts and previous prints
  • Live news headlines
  • Event Playbooks for FOMC, NFP, CPI, ECB and BOE
  • Currency strength viewer and weekly COT report
  • Prop Firm Mode drawdown tracking
  • Bias History: every closed read and how it ended

Pro

$40/ month

or $399 / year and save $81

Everything in Free, plus

  • Today's bias and the Macro Compass for seven major pairs and gold
  • Live open reads with the invalidation level that cancels the bias
  • Conviction grades and the full reasoning behind each read
  • Email alerts before high-impact events
  • AI news Analyze, calendar brief and Pre-Trade Check
  • Trade journal, Earnings and MarketMovers Radar
Get Pro

Annual

$399/ year

$33.25 / month, billed annually · Save $81

Everything in Pro

  • Today's bias and the Macro Compass for seven major pairs and gold
  • Live open reads with the invalidation level that cancels the bias
  • Conviction grades and the full reasoning behind each read
  • Email alerts before high-impact events
  • AI news Analyze, calendar brief and Pre-Trade Check
  • Trade journal, Earnings and MarketMovers Radar
Get Annual

Card or crypto · Cancel anytime · 7-day money-back guarantee on paid plans.

Is there a free plan?
Yes. A free account gets the economic calendar, live news headlines, Event Playbooks, the currency strength viewer, the weekly COT report, Prop Firm Mode drawdown tracking and the Bias History of closed reads. No card needed. Pro adds the daily bias, live reads with their invalidation levels, email alerts and the AI tools.
What if Pro is not for me?
Cancel anytime from your Gumroad receipt or the Billing page. Every paid plan has a 7-day money-back guarantee: email support@biasforge.co within 7 days of your first payment for a full refund.
Is this a signals service?
No. You don't get an entry price, a stop and a target to copy. You get the direction the macro evidence supports and the level where that reasoning breaks. Your entries and your risk stay yours.

Why BiasForge exists

Built for traders who want a thesis, not a signal.

BiasForge is an independent macro research tool, built by a trader. It reads what a macro desk reads and turns it into one directional thesis per pair, with the level where that thesis stops being valid. No entries to copy. No performance claims.

More about how we work

Questions

What traders ask before signing up.

Is this financial advice?

No. BiasForge is an educational macro research tool. Every decision on your account is yours.

How is this different from a free economic calendar?

A calendar tells you an event is coming. It doesn't tell you what it means for direction, how it sits against positioning and rate differentials, or where a read based on it stops being valid. That's the part BiasForge does.

What markets are covered?

Seven major forex pairs — EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CAD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/CHF — plus gold (XAU/USD).

Do I need to know fundamentals already?

No. Every bias comes with its reasoning written out in plain English, so you can read why it leans a certain way — and disagree with it.

Does it work with my prop firm?

Prop Firm Mode has preset rule sets for the major firms, and you can enter your own account size, daily drawdown and total drawdown if your firm isn't listed.

How is conviction calculated?

Each pair is scored on macro, order flow and sentiment, and the engine measures how strongly those components agree on one direction. That agreement, adjusted for how much of the day's range is already used, becomes a score between 40 and 92. It measures how strongly the inputs agree, not the probability of profit.

Is conviction a probability of profit?

No. It measures how much of the evidence agrees. Two pairs with the same score can behave very differently.

What is an invalidation level?

The price that would cancel the bias. It is set from the pair's recent volatility when the bias opens, and it does not move to accommodate price.

What happens when a thesis becomes invalid?

The bias closes. The closure is recorded with its level and reason, and stays on the public record.

Why is there sometimes no directional call?

When the components disagree, when the edge is below the engine's threshold, or when most of the day's range is already spent. A forced direction would be less useful than none.

Why not just use TradingView and an economic calendar?

TradingView is where you analyse price. A calendar tells you when events happen. BiasForge sits between the two: it organises macro data, positioning, newsflow and cross-asset information into a directional thesis with an explicit invalidation. It complements your charting; it doesn't replace it.

Does BiasForge execute trades?

No. It doesn't connect to your broker or place orders. Prop Firm Mode can check a planned trade against your remaining drawdown; the decision and the execution are yours.

How often is the data updated?

The engine updates through the trading session and re-reads sooner when a major headline lands. News is scored as it arrives, COT positioning updates weekly, and some government bond yields reach us with a one-to-two business-day lag.

Where does the data come from?

A market-data provider for price, economic calendar feeds, news wires scored for macro impact, the CFTC's Commitments of Traders report, and government bond yields from official sources.

How does the public record work?

Every daily Today's Bias read the engine closes is listed with its pair, direction, invalidation level, close date and closing reason, including the invalidated ones. Recording began on 27 Aug 2026, and every closed daily read is listed in full on the record page.

Does BiasForge guarantee returns?

No. It is decision support. Trading carries risk, and results depend on your own execution and risk management.

Get started

Start with today's thesis.

Direction, evidence and invalidation for seven major pairs and gold, on one screen.